QUARTERLY LETTERS

Q3 2020 Survival of the Fittest

Survival of the Fittest The market rally that began in March continues its historic run. In stark contrast with what is happening on Main Street, Wall Street has performed exceptionally well, with the S&P 500 posting its best two consecutive quarters in the last 20 years! That incredible performance has not been uniform across all…

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Q2 2020 The “New” New Normal

THE “NEW” NEW NORMAL  There are many superlatives to choose from to describe last quarter’s rally. This winter saw the quickest pivot to a bear market in history, followed by an equally rapid rebound in the spring. In fact, we just experienced the strongest 100-day rally since 1933.[1] After the market bottomed on March 23rd,…

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Q1 2020 The Arrival of COVID-19

The Arrival of COVID-19 We hope that you, your family, and loved ones are holding up and doing well in these unprecedented times. There is no need to explain in detail what happened to the markets during the first quarter; we are all too familiar with the declines. That said, it was the worst quarter…

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Q2 2019 Record Highs and a Record Win

Record Highs and a Record Win Equity markets notched another fine quarter to close out the first half of the year with gains across the board. The first six months of the year marks the strongest stock market since 1997. There are many reasons markets are hitting all-time highs: employment is strong, the economy just…

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Q1 2019 Nice Market Lyft!

Nice Market Lyft! From a performance standpoint, the first quarter of 2019 was essentially the inverse of the previous quarter; in Q4 2018 it was hard to find a winner whereas this quarter it was hard to find a loser.  The market experienced the best first quarter in over 20 years, a sharp 180 from…

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Q4 2018 The Santa Claus Rout

The Santa Claus Rout The market’s year end was both interesting and historically quite rare. Going back to 1950, December has been historically the best performing month, with an average monthly return of 1.53% compared to a 0.50% return for the other 11. The Santa Claus Rally failed to materialize in 2018 with broad markets…

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Q3 2018 It Just Keeps Going and Going 

It Just Keeps Going and Going.  The best way to describe the end of the third quarter is to steal the Energizer Bunny’s tagline, “it just keeps going and going…”[1] The end of September marked the longest running bull market since World War II and the longest most investors have seen in their lifetimes. Equity…

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Q2 2018 Tariffs and World Cup Football

Tariffs and World Cup Football The second quarter equity markets were dominated by headlines surrounding the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs. The tariff talk subsequently turned into action with new tariffs enacted by the US, China, Mexico, Canada, the European Union, India and Turkey. The net effect on US GDP is, at worst, estimated to be…

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Q1 2018 Defensive Investing

The first quarter could very well turn out to be a memorable inflection point in this 10-year bull market. The broad indices ended their nine-quarter streak of positive returns, volatility returned with markets moving up or down with much greater magnitude, and the bull market leaders Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google are not looking…

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